Canadian Federal Budget 2024: Higher Deficits, Higher Government Spending, and Higher Taxes for the Wealthy

Latest News Kim Stenberg 17 Apr

I’d give this budget a C-. That’s generous. It squanders what could have been a reduction in the budget deficit for a host of inconsequential spending measures. Worse still, it increases capital gains taxes, which might play well for millennials and Gen Xers, who need help understanding the unintended consequences. Higher taxes will reduce investment […]

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Recent Signs Show Housing Activity Will Strengthen Meaningfully in April

Latest News Kim Stenberg 15 Apr

Ho Hum Housing Data in March Provides Hints of Coming Strength in Spring The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales for March were roughly flat, while new listings fell and prices stagnated. CREA analysts are confident that recent activity will harken stronger housing markets for the rest of this year. There […]

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March’s Weak Jobs Report Sets the Stage for a June Rate Cut

Latest News Kim Stenberg 8 Apr

The StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for March is much weaker than expected. Employment fell by 2,200, and the employment rate declined for the sixth consecutive month to 61.4%. Total hours worked in March were virtually unchanged but up 0.7% compared with 12 months earlier. The details were similar to the headline: as full-time jobs dipped, total hours worked fell 0.3%, and only two […]

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Canadian Home Sales Stop Falling in February as Prices Hold Steady

Latest News Kim Stenberg 19 Mar

February data bode well for a strong spring housing market The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that national home sales dipped 3.1% m/m in February while home prices were flat, ending a five-month price decline that began last fall. It was noteworthy that prices remained unchanged from January to February, given that they dropped […]

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No Recession in Canada, as Q4 GDP Growth Rose 1%

Latest News Kim Stenberg 29 Feb

Still No Recession in Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics […]

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Great News on the Inflation Front Cause Big Bond Rally

Latest News Kim Stenberg 20 Feb

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline, […]

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Canadian Home Sales Continued to Rise in January as Markets Tightened

Latest News Kim Stenberg 14 Feb

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January as Prices Fell Modestly The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that […]

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